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Natural Resources Canada Monthly and Seasonal Wildlife Forecasts

An increase in wildfire activity over recent weeks has private forest land managers prepared now for what may lie ahead this summer. But what will this summer bring for wildfires in BC?

One tool land managers use to estimate general trends in seasonal wildfire activity is Natural Resources Canada’s Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts tool. The information includes maps with predictions of fire weather severity based on Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System (CanSIPS), and advice provided by provincial agencies. Before, and during fire season, monthly forecast maps are generated at the beginning of each month.

Forecast maps are available for the following themes:

The Forecast Severity Rating map presents forecasted monthly or seasonal severity ratings. This map shows the predicted conditions unadjusted for climatology.

The Average Severity Rating map presents 30-year average monthly or seasonal severity ratings. This map shows the regional climatology of severity conditions.

The Forecast Severity Anomaly map presents the ratio of the forecasted severity rating to the average monthly or seasonal severity rating. This map indicates which regions are predicted to be above or below the regional climatological average in a normalized form.

Natural Resources Canada’s July 2022 Forecast Severity Anomaly map predicts Coastal BC
will see average wildfire severity.

The Confidence Rating map presents the ratio of the standard deviation of the forecasted severity rating to the average monthly or seasonal severity rating. This map indicates the confidence in the forecast according to the variation of ensemble members around the predicted value.

More information about the calculations for monthly and seasonal severity forecasts is available in the Natural Resources Canada Background Information.

Disclaimer: The above forecasts are experimental and have yet to be fully validated and calibrated. They should be viewed not for their accuracy, but for the general trends they present and are to be used as a long-range planning tool by fire resource managers.