Now that wildfire season is underway across Canada, the BC Wildfire Service has published its Summer 2025 Wildfire Season Outlook, forecasting what they expect to see during the peak of the wildfire season based on currently available data.

Three key factors are used to forecast the core wildfire season: drought levels, overwinter snowpack and periods of prolonged heat without rain in June.

Regional drought and Fire Danger Indices

Multi-year drought conditions continue to persist in the northeast corner of the province and parts of the Central Interior. These deep drought conditions have been ongoing since 2022 in some regions and continue to pose challenges to wildfire response.

For firefighters on the ground, elevated Drought Codes mean a more dangerous work environment and slower suppression operations, as deep digging and water application are necessary to extinguish fires under these conditions.

Snowpack’s impact on wildfires

Temperatures were near normal for most of B.C. through the spring. These cooler conditions helped to slow snow melt rates and even supported additional snowfall in the alpine in some areas. While the northeast corner of the province was warmer than normal, we can contrast the current snowpack levels (80-89% of normal) with the situation at this time last year (50-58% of normal).

Currently, provincial snowpack is below normal with about 61% remaining across the province, on average. This lower level of snowpack means less surface runoff, lower stream flows, and ultimately, forest fuels that dry out more quickly, becoming more prone to ignition.

Spring precipitation

We experienced wetter-than-normal conditions up and down the coast in May, but this was contrasted with drier-than-normal conditions in the Peace Country and Fort Nelson regions.

Based on current modelling, we anticipate a drier June than usual, building on the warming, drying trend we have seen impact the northeast and many parts of the Interior already this spring. However, accurately predicting precipitation levels in the longer term is challenging, and this outlook could change.

Source: https://blog.gov.bc.ca/bcwildfire/summer-2025-seasonal-outlook/